In the immortal words of President Reagan, "Well, there they go again!" The pollsters that is...

On September 12, we were treated to the news that President Bush is “slipping” in the polls again. He was up to almost 42 percent in a recent Gallup poll, but now he’s at around 39 percent. In addition, Gallup shows support of the Iraq War continues to plunge, and approval of the Republican controlled Congress is in the 20s.

Now not all polls show the President and Congress doing as poorly, but after all, Gallup is one of the most prestigious polling firms around, according to political “experts.”

The result is that many Republican voters and even activists are demoralized as we face the November 2006 congressional elections. Meanwhile, some Democrat members of Congress are so confident they will take back the House and maybe even the senate, that they’re measuring curtains for their new offices.

The simple truth is that most presidential approval polls done by Newsweek, Gallup, Time Magazine and several other prestigious organizations are meaningless.   Why? Because between as many as 60 percent of the people asked probably won’t vote in the upcoming election.

The great political website RealClearPolitics.com keeps a running tally of the presidential approval polls. If you click on the links to the full poll results and read the fine print, you’ll find the vast majority including the most recent Gallup Poll, are of “American adults.” Some, such as Fox News Opinion Dynamics, are of “registered voters”, but even that number doesn’t reflect how people who are likely to vote this fall actually feel.

The way most presidential approval polls are conducted, survey respondents are simply asked whether they are over the age of 18. They are not asked if they are registered to vote, and it’s not even determined whether they are likely to vote in the next election.

Why is this important? Consider the following:

• For the past several decades, only 40 to 55 percent of Americans of voting age have bothered to go to the polls!
  
• Even in 2004, a record breaking year for turnout, 44 percent of the voting age population did not vote.
• Turnout in 1998 and 2002, non presidential years, were below 40 percent. That means 6 out of 10 people of voting age didn't vote.
• Voter turnout in 2006, will likely fall below 50 percent again, although polarization because of the Iraq War might spark greater than normal turnout for a non-presidential year. Most political experts estimate turnout will not be much over 50 percent.
  

Why do pollsters include non-voters in their polls? Because it takes a lot of time and effort to screen potential respondents. If you’re only asking people their age, you don’t have to call as many people. Once you narrow the requirements for participation, the more expensive your effort becomes. (We won’t even go into the way some pollsters skew their results by surveying more Democrats than Republicans or how the wording of the question often can significantly change the results.)

My point is that when poll results are reported in the media, the fact that non-voters are included in the surveys is not mentioned, or at the most under-played. As a result, Democrats and liberals continually crow that most Americans disapprove of this President and think we're losing the war. After all, that's what the polls say.

A more devious mind than mine might conclude that this is done deliberately to suppress the conservative Republican vote. Which is why supporters of President Bush and the War on Terror can't let bogus poll results demoralize us to the point that we don't vote in November. While President Bush and the Republican Congress leave a lot to be desired, especially when it comes to spending and immigration reform, electing a Democrat Congress would be a disaster and the very safety of our families would be threatened.

The bottom line is that supporters of the War on Terror haven't lost Congress yet. It all depends on who is better getting out the vote. After all,  the only poll that matters is the one conducted on Election Day.

Note:  For detailed voter turnout statistics, check out George Mason University's United States Election Project here.  One interesting statistic is that nearly 3 percent of people of voting age are not eligible to vote because they are felons or non-citizens.